Happily, with new data, organized by non-overlapping zipcode, I can solve both those problems. One sixth of us (52 million people) live in places denser than 5362 per square mile; the next sixth, denser than 2786 per square mile, the next sixth, denser than 1292 per square mile (that’s the median density for our population; half of us live in zipcodes less dense than that, too). With all the zipcodes included it’s clear that many of us live in plenty-dense places.

I’ve tagged the graph with zipcodes in the Boston area north of the Charles River, mostly inside 128, plus all of Boston, and also plus three European cities known for their relatively high bike trip share.

The two main problems are (1) that the calm routes are not direct, and the direct routes are not calm and (2) avoiding nasty traffic and tight spots requires improvisation that is technically illegal, which makes it unsettling to many people, and hides it from official discussion of routes and infrastructure planning.

And people need to understand — me, personally, it’s good enough, but I’m a member of the biking 1% who tolerates traffic. The rest of you people, if you think to yourself, “gee, I’d like to commute to work on my bike, I need to lose 20 pounds, and I HATE parking in Cambridge” — until Cambridge gets serious, it’s probably not going to happen for you. You’ll try it, and hate it. And it’s not your fault; it’s Cambridge’s fault.

The most-direct route to Inman Square from our home runs out Concord Avenue, alongside two rotaries on a well-defined and nice path/track, and then straight up Concord into Harvard Square. This is not a recognized bike route and it is somewhat narrow in places, but it is the most direct route. Concord joins Garden, which for a short stretch is an extremely narrow 4-lanes-plus-parking, loops left, through a tunnel under Harvard, bear left onto Cambridge, and then on to Inman Square. That stretch from where Concord and Garden meet through the 4-lanes and tunnel up on to Cambridge might as well be a canyon for most people on a bike; they will not do it. It looks dangerous, and it probably is dangerous. In addition, neither Concord nor Cambridge is an especially fun street; they’re both somewhat narrow and often lined with parked cars, and (for someone on the back of a tandem) the pavement is entirely too lumpy.

An alternate route through that section continues straight at Garden, diagonally across, riding up a curb cut, across a sidewalk, down onto a marked lane, running a light that is ALWAYS red (no cross traffic at all), and then up on sidewalks to ride across Harvard Common. Of course, riding on that sidewalk is probably technically illegal, but never mind. Across the common, wait for the pedestrian signal to cross Mass Ave — except it turns out that one of the many car lanes to be crossed has a green light at the same time that pedestrians are given a walk signal; if you just rode straight across, you could easily be hit. From there, riding across open space at Harvard would not be too hard, except that there is some significant construction going on that routes all traffic (legitimate pedestrian and otherwise) into relatively narrow lanes, and there’s not enough guidance about where to go.

It’s worth comparing the tradeoffs that are apparently considered acceptable. The most direct route is 5.2 miles long. The first choice from Google, seeking bike routes, is 5.6 miles long, adding multiple digressions from the shortest route in search of allegedly calmer routes. The most direct route is just three named roads outside Belmont: Concord, Garden, and Cambridge.

The “calm” route is Concord, Fresh Pond, Vassal, Huron, Sparks, Brattle, Mason, across the Common, Cambridge, Summer, Kirkland, Beacon. Longer, and can you remember it without your secret decoder ring?

The route that makes the largest use of separate facilities is 6.2 miles long. It includes 3 additional roads within Belmont (Underwood, Hittinger, Brighton), a bike path, Alewife station, another bike path, left turn at Russell field, traverse Mass Ave, traverse Davis Square (no sidewalk riding!), Elm, Somerville, Park, Beacon, Cambridge.

checking encoding (US-ASCII)...
checking Python lib (/opt/local/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/2.7/lib/python2.7)...
checking installed modules (/opt/local/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/2.7/lib/python2.7/site-packages/mercurial)...
checking templates (/opt/local/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/2.7/lib/python2.7/site-packages/mercurial/templates)...
checking commit editor...
 Can't find editor 'runemacs' in PATH
 (specify a commit editor in your configuration file)
checking username...
1 problems detected, please check your install!. Command line: hg -y debuginstall

Note that he’s really good at narrating success — here I am, I am checking this, here is what I saw, I looked here, I looked there. And then, uh-oh, “cannot find runemacs in PATH”.

Right at this instant it would be a REALLY good idea to print what he thinks the value of PATH is, because guess what, runemacs is a file, it is in my path, it is executable, etc. This is running inside another program (Eclipse), Eclipse may have gorked my PATH in some screwy way, I need details.

Said programmer then proceeds to indulge in misguided idle speculation (yet still manages to be uninformative) about how to fix this. I should “specify a commit editor in my configuration file”. If I were a Mercurial noob, this would tell me fucking nothing. There are various locations for my configuration file, and various ways to find it — but no guidance here ($HOME/.hgrc is the usual place for your commit editor to be found; it does not vary between projects. It would not be a risky stretch to say “, usually $HOME/.hgrc” and since he HAS access to $HOME, that could even be expanded on my behalf in the error message).

And how, exactly, might I “specify a commit editor”? That would be “editor=some-editor” in the “[ui]” section of the configuration file. That is:

[ui]
editor=runemacs

Too much trouble to say that, I guess, it builds character in your users if they have to run around looking for information in poorly organized documentation.

And of course, rather than ever telling me what my PATH is (because no, that could never ever be wrong), it helpfully tells me a command to run to check my installation. Good try, but guess what, my mercurial installation is A-OK awesomely great, that command line just said so.

Myopic jerks. You could have saved a lot of time if you had just provided all the relevant information, instead of keeping it a secret.

Solution to problem is to specify the full path name to the editor, and quit relying on PATH being right:

[ui]
editor=$HOME/bin/runemacs

But sometimes, making things better for bicycles requires no tradeoff. An example of this is the crosswalk from Cambridge Common to Harvard Law School across Mass Ave. Technically it’s “not for bicyles”, but in practice it is, because the other routes through Harvard Square are crowded and full of cars.

This crosswalk has two problems. First, it’s not big enough; there’s often enough pedestrian and bicycle traffic that people pile up and get in each other’s way. This can lead to conflict between bikes and peds, which is not good. Second, it’s not intuitive. For whatever reason, the crosswalk is divided into segments that don’t all “go” at the same time. A cyclist who’s not aware of this (who makes the completely reasonable assumption that it’s all go) runs the risk of sprinting right into the front of a car with a green light.

The problematic lane is marked with a blue dashed line. The other lines, pink and blue, show (what could be) the two basic cycles for this light.

My solution to this problem comes in two parts. First, the pedestrian crossing must be all “go” at the same time. The light then has two cycles, pink and blue. One problem with this is that it requires a very long walk signal for the slowest pedestrians to get all the way across, and this will probably interfere with the car traffic flow. Instead, run the walk signal on a shorter cycle that only gives the slowest walkers time to get half-way across. However, at the island where they are expected to stop and wait, provide a nice place to wait (shown in the picture with a green box). That means covered to protect from the weather, and with substantial barriers to protect from passing traffic (in the case of parents with small children, to help keep children getting into traffic). This should include a bench, so people can sit and rest.

Second, because the faster pedestrians and cyclists will certainly plan to cross in a single cycle, make the crossing wide enough (and mark it) so that they can spread out, move fast, and avoid conflict. There’s no particular reason that the crosswalk needs to be as narrow as it is; there is an ample stretch of unused space, and it should be dedicated to making this crossing nicer for people who aren’t driving.

All the crosswalk signals must have countdown timers, so that people crossing can properly estimate whether they can make it across in a single cycle or not.

I don’t live in Burlington, but I work in Burlington, and I often ride my bike to work, and what keeps me from riding to work more often is the abominable cycling and pedestrian facilities that you (Burlington) provide. I think you can and should do better. In addition, a friend of ours has a somewhat-special-needs son who works at the Dollar Tree; he cannot drive, but with a few road improvements in Burlington he could probably ride a bicycle to work, which would be better for everyone involved.First, you should know that I am considered a relatively fearless cyclist. I’ll put up with a lot of crap, though I don’t like it. I’ve noticed (as I get older) that my tolerance for crap on the road is diminishing, but if I don’t put in a lot of miles on my bike it will be bad for my health, and commuting to work is an easy way to get those miles. Until I hit the Burlington line my commute is relatively pleasant and low-stress. Making me (mildly) happy won’t turn Burlington into a bicycle paradise, but other people might be able to put up with it in small doses and on good days, so overall you’d get a few more cyclists and a bit less traffic.

My commute: I ride into Burlington via Lexington on the Middlesex Turnpike, continue under 128, and make a left turn (none is allowed, but I make one) at the light, hopping the curb into the bookstore parking lot. After that I ride through office parks to the old Sun (now Oracle) site.

PROBLEMS:

SIDEWALKS: On the Middlesex Turnpike (MT), from the Lexington line to McDonalds, there are no sidewalks. At McDonalds, a sidewalk begins on the north side of the street, though the curbs are generally not ramped (NOT ADA-accessible). That sidewalk ends at the Dunkin Donuts; any pedestrian that wished to walk to the Burlington Mall is left with a muddy path that ends in a guardrail after crossing under 128 and its access road. There’s a disconnected bit of sidewalk on the south side under 128, and finally a long sidewalk begins on the south side of the MT at the bookstore. However, there are no crosswalks at this point allowing someone to walk, even from the muddy path, across to the sidewalk on the bookstore side.

CROSSWALKS: There are no crosswalks across the Middlesex Turnpike.
There is no crosswalk at the Old Concord Road light.
There is no crosswalk at the Adams Street light.
There is no crosswalk at the Wheeler Road light.
There is no crosswalk at the other Wheeler Road (128N) light.
There is no crosswalk at the 128S light.
There is no crosswalk at the South Avenue light.
There is no crosswalk at the 2ndAve/Burlington Mall Road light.

You can view the (lack of) sidewalks and crosswalks here, though this post does not include the recent construction in the office park (and addition of a single crosswalk at 3rd Avenue, about a mile down the road from 128, so not really useful for this stretch of road anyway)

http://dr2chase.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/burlington-mass-bike-and-ped-unfriendly/

ROAD/SHOULDER: the pavement is in terrible shape. The asphalt has been deformed into ruts. The road is filthy; it gets filled with sand and litter, and seems to stay that way year round. No doubt the rutted asphalt makes it more difficult for a street cleaner to handle. There is also not even a hint of a bicycle lane; I put up with crap, which means I ride on the white line at the edge of the road, and cars usually make room to get around me. Wide trucks, I take care, one way or another.

Here is a picture, taken in May 2007, illustrating some of what I mean:

CENTER DIVIDER: Because of the otherwise appalling infrastructure, pedestrians and cyclists improvise by riding, walking, or pausing on the center divider to get from one side of the road to the other. There are some old cut-off road sign stubs there; someone crossing (and without a crosswalk for a mile in either direction, why wouldn’t they cross there?) might trip on one of those stubs and break a bone, or even (worse) fall into traffic. I don’t think you can pretend that this is an unauthorized crossing and therefore not your problem; you provide NO crossings, therefore all crossing is equally “authorized” (we do have a fundamental right to travel in this country, even if we aren’t driving a car).

SNOW PLOWING is terrible. I’m not riding right now (written several weeks ago) because the road has been plowed very narrow, and I could not ride on the sidewalk (where there IS a sidewalk) because it is buried under six feet of plowed and piled snow, and the curb I’d like to hop is blocked by that same gigantic wall of snow. In one place, a stretch of road that I normally ride on is completely unplowed.

MULLER ROAD/North St. Our friend’s son, if he biked to work, would probably use this to reach the Dollar Tree. I tried it once or twice after stopping at the mall on my bike, and it’s not a good choice for bicycles; the road is too narrow and the shoulder is too abrupt. It SHOULD be a good road for bicycles; there should be a nice lane on both sides, and it should be marked, and the speed limit should be reduced. Riding into the parking lot through the Middlesex Turnpike entrance is not a good alternative; after the Lexington line the striped shoulder disappears and brush is spilling out into the road, and the return includes a section where cars are merging (this is dangerous because drivers’ attention must be divided between the cyclist and the merging traffic. It’s NOT pleasant to ride).

ADAMS ST: This is an alternate route to/from Lexington. The Burlington portion of this road is narrow, crowded by trees and brush, and also has poison ivy in the brush. No adequate bike lane (or even shoulder), no sidewalk.

SUGGESTIONS:

If I were to rank the priority of the missing crosswalks and sidewalks, I would say that the lack of the 3 crosswalks between Wheeler Road and 128S entrance is very high, and there needs to be (good!) sidewalks between those two intersections. I recognize that it would be difficult and expensive to relocate the guard rail on the north side of the MT adjacent to the Burlington Mall (though this ought to eventually happen). If one or more crosswalks and that bit of missing sidewalk were added, then people could at least walk from as far as McDonalds (on the north side) to the bookstore and beyond (on the south side). There is foot traffic to the Burlington mall; perhaps the mall could supply an access at the corner of the 128S entrance ramp and MT. Making that access meet ADA regulations would be difficult, but laudable.

For not much effort, the Middlesex Turnpike could be restriped and brush-cleared from the Lexington line to Old Concord Road. This is a not a large stretch of road, but it could be more pleasant, and would provide better pedestrian and bicycle access to those malls. On the Lexington-bound side of the road, the intersection should be redesigned so that only one lane proceeds into Lexington, allowing more room for bicyclists, and also removing a place where cars sometimes merge and/or compete for space. I also drive this section, and can tell that one lane is generally adequate. It is, after all, only one lane within Lexington.

Muller Road should also be made safer for bicycles. A minimal accommodation would be to provide a flat and obstacle-free shoulder so that a cyclist could safely leave the road if traffic was too unpleasant. A better accommodation would be actual pavement, and stripes indicating the bike lane area.

The one-way section of South Avenue near the movie theater should be converted into two-way for bicycles so that cyclists can stay off Middlesex Turnpike as much as possible while traveling east. Cyclists tend to ride against the one-way anyhow; there is very little traffic there during the day or the rush hours.

If you renovate the Burlington Mall stretch of the Middlesex Turnpike, sidewalks and bike lanes would be lovely.

When you install curbs, consider not using sharp-edged granite. I know some people think it looks pretty, but to me it looks like a potential compound fracture; if my tire even brushes against it, the tire is instantly destroyed, and I risk falling onto that same sharp edge. Road departments in Minneapolis and Chicago find that concrete curbing works just as well at about the same cost and durability, and it is generally shaped into a less-threatening profile (you can ask them yourself; I did).

PIE-IN-THE-SKY:

I’ve been watching the construction in the Nordblom office park, and it’s really impressive. They seem to have no problems with leveling hills and generally moving stuff around. Cyclists prefer to avoid hills, and if they cannot be avoided completely, perhaps they can be reduced, either in size or in number. If there is future rework of 2nd Avenue or South Avenue in that office park, flattening either hill somewhat would be lovely. Similarly, the hills on the Middlesex Turnpike itself might be susceptible to a little flattening in some future road repair. Or perhaps, with the cooperation of the developer (Nordblom), a separate bicycle path that was not too indirect and not nearly as hilly could be devised.

MORE PIE-IN-THE-SKY:

It’s unlikely that you’d build this here, but municipalities actually build this sort of structure in other parts of the world, sometimes even here in the US.

First, it’s hard to imagine how you will fit comfortably bicycles AND pedestrians under 128 without taking lanes from cars, and I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. In other places (I have seen this in both California and Florida) bridges are built instead to get people across freeways, busy roads, and in one case, a body of water. I’ve looked at topographic maps and done some eyeballing from the ground, and it looks like you could run a level bridge from the end of Wheeler Road across to the hill with the movie theater on it, or perhaps to the backside of some of the new development underway near the movie theater. Another possibility is to start on some of the land that I see marked “abandoned Route 3 right-of-way”. This would provide bicycle access from Lexington to the bookstore and movie theater, with the option of crossing the Middlesex Turnpike at a signaled intersection to get to the Burlington Mall. Bicycling commuters could avoid the MT traffic on their way to the office park.

And as long as I’m dreaming about bridges, I might as well propose more of them. In the Nordblom office park there are several hills. Bicycle bridges that spanned the dips between the hills would make the ride more pleasant; instead of climbing three hills to get to work I could climb just one.

I do understand that these pie-in-the-sky proposals seem disproportionately luxurious given the relatively small number of bicycle commuters you have right now. Your roads, however, are horrible — you will only get the most hardcore/motivated/crazy people to ride on them in their current condition. Build nicer facilities, you’ll get more people on bikes. Consider also what it would take to get more people in to the office parks and malls; those roads and parking lots often run full, especially at the time of year (near Christmas) when those stores make most of their money. You’ll have a hard time cramming many more cars in there, but there’s plenty of room for bicycles.

The not-so-good side is even less good, but I this was a LOT of snow, and lots of drifty winds.

Pictures taken January 8, snow from before the New Year.
But at least, when we get to the light, bicycles have their very own plowed lane:

Apparently some conservatives and other deluded souls believe that our appallingly low life expectancy is not a healthcare result, but is instead caused by excess (misclassified, not health-related) infant mortality and excess violence. This, like many conservative beliefs, is bullshit. Proof:

Suppose we have a “true” life expectancy, but two subpopulations that die early for non-medical reasons and drag it down. The “misclassified infant death” subpopulation dies at age 0, and accounts for about 0.003 of our deaths (that is, the excess US infant mortality rate is about 3 per 1000). The “murder death” subpopulation dies at an average age of 25 (a guess), and accounts for 15,000 deaths per year out of a total of 2,500,000 or 0.006 of our deaths. The reported US life expectancy is 78.37 years, and this is equal to the adjusted life expectancy * 0.991 + 25 * 0.006 + 0 * 0.003.

That is, adjusted = (78.37 – 25 * 0.006) / 0.991 = 78.93.

Without adjusting ANY OTHER COUNTRIES (Portugal’s infant mortality rate is better than ours, but not first-class) for worse-than-hoped infant mortality or murders, we move all the way from #49 to #44. That’s not much to brag about.

Update, the claim is it’s traffic accidents

Because I am feeling lazy and generous, I’ll assume average age 30, erase ALL of them, the death rate is 33,808/2,500,000 = 0.0135.

adjusted = (78.37 – 25 * 0.006 – 30 * 0.0135) / 0.9775 = 79.6.

That’s #37 in the list. USA! USA! USA!

That figure is overly generous and should not be relied on, because there are other countries between #49 and #37 with relatively high traffic death rates that would also be “corrected” upwards in the same way, among them Belgium and South Korea.

Further update — what if we try to factor in the exercise that we don’t get because we drive cars to excess?

That might matter. The years-of-life penalty is estimated to be 2-5 years, though it can be made up with other forms of exercise. +2 years takes us out of the embarrassing weeds, and up into the top ranks. However, again, one-must-apply-the-correction-equally; even in the Netherlands, even in Denmark, many people do drive automobiles to excess (how do you think they were able to do these studies in the first place?)

And we may be mothballing a lot of nuclear plants in the coming years, and that might not be a good thing. Reaction to the Fukishima disaster has resulted in lots of new safety requirements (probably a good thing, but it is possible to waste money on excess safety, or misallocate it away from larger risks to further reduce tiny risks), and the low price of fracked natural gas means that nuclear plants have a harder time earning the money to pay for those improvements. That’s all fine, till the natural gas runs out.

And I know if I say “you could ride a bike — in fact I plan to ride a bike to work tomorrow, 10 miles, because of the likely traffic jams”, that this mere statement of fact will mark me as a smug asshole, totally out of touch with the life of ordinary-salt-of-the-earth-Americans. But in fact, if you rode a bike often enough to stay in some semblance of shape, you could do this, and your mayor is even putting in all sorts of bike lanes and cycle tracks to make this somewhat easier, and would probably have installed even more by now if ordinary-salt-of-the-earth-Americans did not make such a tremendous fuss every time he installed a new one.

I’m not sure what I could say to add to their own advertising, except to confirm that this stuff is real, meaning you really can do what you see in the video, and these guys really do know their stuff. Xtracycle’s first product (the FreeRadical) was a wonder; three attachmnt points and it’s securely on, the only mods to the bike itself are longer shift and brake cables, plus an extension to the chain. Miraculously, the derailer chain would just fit in the available space between all the structural parts. The snap deck was light, strong, and good looking, and even then the design was “open” enough that people made their own replacement decks (for example, a snapdeck skateboard).

A choice of a cargo bike involves tradeoffs, but this design made some nice ones. More torque, longer wheelbase, lower load, stiffer, and nice new accessories for carrying kids or really heavy stuff with ease. The big advantage of longtails (over the other large-bike choice, front-loading Long-Johns and bakfiets) is that they maneuver “just like a bike”; unloaded, you can walk or ride them through narrow places with relative ease (front loaders are more convenient to load, but ride less like a “normal” bike, and tend to have mandatory width, though it varies).

There’s a serious electric assist option — 910 watts; that’s almost 3 of me, meaning that I could haul a 110-pound load up a 10% grade at 12-15 mph, depending on how hard I wanted to work. That drives up the price, however.

For bonus fun, it’s a relatively open platform; the electric assist is designed to use standard connectors, not proprietary ones, and the specs for the cargo area of the frame itself are “open“.

For double bonus fun, the frame’s designed by the fastest (self-propelled) man on earth.

Blows up before it even runs, looks like the Mercurial plugin having a bad day.

No point bothering to report the bug, it’s a pain in the ass and they never seem to fix them. Just for example, notice how the text in the picture naming the file above looks like it’s selected, so I could copy and paste it when opening an editor to look at the contents of the file? That’s a lie, like a “pull” handle on a “push” door, and it’s long-ago-reported bug, never fixed.

I’ve been looking for an excuse to go try IntelliJ IDEA, and this just might be it.

!SESSION 2012-09-28 13:52:46.339 -----------------------------------------------
eclipse.buildId=M20120914-1800
java.version=1.7.0_04
java.vendor=Oracle Corporation
BootLoader constants: OS=macosx, ARCH=x86_64, WS=cocoa, NL=en_US
Framework arguments:  -keyring /Users/dr2chase/.eclipse_keyring -showlocation
Command-line arguments:  -os macosx -ws cocoa -arch x86_64 -keyring /Users/dr2chase/.eclipse_keyring -showlocation

!ENTRY org.eclipse.core.resources 2 10035 2012-09-28 13:52:48.179
!MESSAGE The workspace exited with unsaved changes in the previous session; refreshing workspace to recover changes.

!ENTRY com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:48.627
!MESSAGE Invalid thread access
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:376)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.debugInstall(HgDebugInstallClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.checkHgInstallation(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:209)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin$1.run(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:146)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:48.631
!MESSAGE Invalid thread access
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:376)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.debugInstall(HgDebugInstallClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.checkHgInstallation(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:209)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.getExecutable(DefaultConfiguration.java:37)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgClients.getExecutable(HgClients.java:41)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.RootlessHgCommand.getExecutable(RootlessHgCommand.java:49)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.getCommands(AbstractShellCommand.java:652)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:396)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.hgSupportsEncoding(HgDebugInstallClient.java:54)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.MercurialTeamProvider$3.run(MercurialTeamProvider.java:324)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:48.650
!MESSAGE Invalid thread access
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:376)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.debugInstall(HgDebugInstallClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.checkHgInstallation(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:209)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.getExecutable(DefaultConfiguration.java:37)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgClients.getExecutable(HgClients.java:41)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.RootlessHgCommand.getExecutable(RootlessHgCommand.java:49)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.getRunDir(AbstractShellCommand.java:729)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.setupProcess(AbstractShellCommand.java:501)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:402)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.hgSupportsEncoding(HgDebugInstallClient.java:54)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.MercurialTeamProvider$3.run(MercurialTeamProvider.java:324)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY org.eclipse.core.jobs 4 2 2012-09-28 13:52:48.659
!MESSAGE An internal error occurred during: "Changeset detection".
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.hgSupportsEncoding(HgDebugInstallClient.java:54)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.MercurialTeamProvider$3.run(MercurialTeamProvider.java:324)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:48.739
!MESSAGE Invalid thread access
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:376)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.debugInstall(HgDebugInstallClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.checkHgInstallation(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:209)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.getExecutable(DefaultConfiguration.java:37)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgClients.getExecutable(HgClients.java:41)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgCommand.getExecutable(HgCommand.java:188)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.getCommands(AbstractShellCommand.java:652)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:396)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgStatusClient.getStatusWithoutIgnored(HgStatusClient.java:113)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.MercurialStatusCache.refreshStatus(MercurialStatusCache.java:775)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.RefreshStatusJob.run(RefreshStatusJob.java:88)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:48.771
!MESSAGE Invalid thread access
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:376)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgDebugInstallClient.debugInstall(HgDebugInstallClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.checkHgInstallation(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:209)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.getExecutable(DefaultConfiguration.java:37)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgClients.getExecutable(HgClients.java:41)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgCommand.getExecutable(HgCommand.java:188)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.getRunDir(AbstractShellCommand.java:729)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.setupProcess(AbstractShellCommand.java:501)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:402)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgStatusClient.getStatusWithoutIgnored(HgStatusClient.java:113)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.MercurialStatusCache.refreshStatus(MercurialStatusCache.java:775)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.RefreshStatusJob.run(RefreshStatusJob.java:88)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY org.eclipse.core.jobs 4 2 2012-09-28 13:52:48.773
!MESSAGE An internal error occurred during: "Initializing hg cache for: XXXXXX".
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgStatusClient.getStatusWithoutIgnored(HgStatusClient.java:113)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.MercurialStatusCache.refreshStatus(MercurialStatusCache.java:775)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.cache.RefreshStatusJob.run(RefreshStatusJob.java:88)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY org.eclipse.core.jobs 4 2 2012-09-28 13:52:48.774
!MESSAGE An internal error occurred during: "Detecting hg user name".
!STACK 0
org.eclipse.swt.SWTError: Invalid thread access
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.createImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:212)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.getImageRegistry(AbstractUIPlugin.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:326)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsole.<init>(HgConsole.java:74)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.init(HgConsoleHolder.java:59)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.views.console.HgConsoleHolder.getConsole(HgConsoleHolder.java:135)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.DefaultConfiguration.commandInvoked(DefaultConfiguration.java:101)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.logConsoleCommandInvoked(AbstractShellCommand.java:545)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToStream(AbstractShellCommand.java:410)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToBytes(AbstractShellCommand.java:387)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:605)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand.executeToString(AbstractShellCommand.java:601)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgConfigClient.getHgConfigLines(HgConfigClient.java:30)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.HgConfigClient.getHgConfigLine(HgConfigClient.java:22)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.team.MercurialUtilities.getDefaultUserName(MercurialUtilities.java:256)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.preferences.PreferenceInitializer$1.run(PreferenceInitializer.java:132)
	at org.eclipse.core.internal.jobs.Worker.run(Worker.java:53)

!ENTRY org.eclipse.osgi 4 0 2012-09-28 13:52:50.750
!MESSAGE Application error
!STACK 1
org.eclipse.swt.SWTException: Failed to execute runnable (java.lang.NullPointerException)
	at org.eclipse.swt.SWT.error(SWT.java:4361)
	at org.eclipse.swt.SWT.error(SWT.java:4276)
	at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Synchronizer.runAsyncMessages(Synchronizer.java:138)
	at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.setSynchronizer(Display.java:4541)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.runUI(Workbench.java:2450)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.access$7(Workbench.java:2431)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench$5.run(Workbench.java:586)
	at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(Realm.java:332)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.createAndRunWorkbench(Workbench.java:543)
	at org.eclipse.ui.PlatformUI.createAndRunWorkbench(PlatformUI.java:149)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.ide.application.IDEApplication.start(IDEApplication.java:124)
	at org.eclipse.equinox.internal.app.EclipseAppHandle.run(EclipseAppHandle.java:196)
	at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.runApplication(EclipseAppLauncher.java:110)
	at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.start(EclipseAppLauncher.java:79)
	at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:353)
	at org.eclipse.core.runtime.adaptor.EclipseStarter.run(EclipseStarter.java:180)
	at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(Native Method)
	at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:57)
	at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
	at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:601)
	at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.invokeFramework(Main.java:629)
	at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.basicRun(Main.java:584)
	at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.run(Main.java:1438)
Caused by: java.lang.NullPointerException
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.WorkbenchPlugin.getSharedImages(WorkbenchPlugin.java:648)
	at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.getSharedImages(Workbench.java:1318)
	at org.eclipse.ui.plugin.AbstractUIPlugin.imageDescriptorFromPlugin(AbstractUIPlugin.java:670)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.MercurialEclipsePlugin.getImageDescriptor(MercurialEclipsePlugin.java:328)
	at com.vectrace.MercurialEclipse.commands.AbstractShellCommand$1.run(AbstractShellCommand.java:109)
	at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.RunnableLock.run(RunnableLock.java:35)
	at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Synchronizer.runAsyncMessages(Synchronizer.java:135)
	... 20 more

What’s interesting is that back in 2007, a researcher at the Naval Postgraduate School came pretty close to predicting this — he suggested an ice-free summer as early as 2013. And then, conventional wisdom was ice-free somewhere between 2040 and 2100.

But look at what simple extrapolations of ice cap volume get us now, five years later:

And see how the extrapolations have changed over time:

That is, a simple fit back in 2007 would have predicted ice-free in 2019, and since then the predicted ice-free year has moved 2 years earlier.

What does this mean? One somewhat-modeled prediction is slower Rossby waves, which means that what ever weather we get (hot, cold, dry, wet), we’ll get it in longer-lasting doses. But the big official predictions (e.g., the IPCC reports) don’t incorporate any of this news; they’re still based on the assumption that there is some amount of Arctic ice cap for decades.

My personal prediction is that this next winter, or the next, when some large hunk of the US gets stuck under a long-lasting blob of cold Arctic air, that some head-in-the-sand moron will say “this proves that there is no global warming”.

Relevant links:

Estimated changes in albedo

Calculations of consequence of albedo change (LARGE).

Arctic Sea Ice blog (Good source of data, discussion, links)

And again, none of the “official” conservative models include this effect, because they assume the arctic ice cap persists for another 40 years, and not fewer than 4. This is a big warming change.

So. Almost exactly 24 hours before the bidding closes, a high bid is placed, but for the “wrong amount” — $325 was a typo, apparently.

And 2 minutes and 10 seconds before the policy change time, and almost twelve hours after accidentally entering the wrong amount, the bid is retracted.

Right.

Haven’t won the item yet, I fully expect to get sniped, but I am doing the rational-actor 2nd-price-auction bid — I will not change my price, because I already bid what I was willing to pay.

But is it really a second-price auction if the bid-retraction policy is so lenient?

I suppose I should do the work to render this into a 3-d model, so that I can have them fabbed by Ponoko or Shapeways or something, but I’ve got mine, and the market for Big Dummy’s equipped with Rohloff hubs AND chain tensioners is probably not that large.

This is what years of gross inequality, overpaying for health care, overpaying for college, and the repeal of usury laws gets you:

For the median USAmerican, we’re not #1, we’re #17.

Mike the Mad Biologist lead me to this information.

If pitchforks seem too radical, try always voting for the viable candidate whose views are closest to Bernie Sanders. This usually means voting for a member of the Democratic Party, unless you are lucky enough to be able to vote for Senator Sanders himself.

The waste heat output (we’re not that efficient) is almost a kilowatt. Yes, I was quite warm.

I ride my bike to work at least twice a week, and I get to see stuff dropped in the road, and stuff dropped on a bike (multi-use, really) path. The stuff dropped on the road is usually smashed up, unless it is indestructible. The stuff dropped on the bike path is usually picked up and pinned to a tree branch where it will be seen, or set down carefully at the edge of the path, or placed on top of a bench or a barrier. On the road, there’s always road kill. Dead squirrels, dead chipmunks, dead bunnies, dead beavers. Saw some a dead weasel, or maybe a fisher, once. On the bike path, I’ve seen one dead chipmunk in years of use. People not in cars are a lot more careful, polite, and helpful. I’m not talking about attitude — it’s easy to say that you’re polite — I’m talking about actions and results. People driving cars smash things up that are in the road, instead of setting them aside to that they can be reclaimed later. That’s not very nice.

And of course, it’s much easier for people walking, jogging, skating, or biking to spot things and dodge them or pick them up, but that’s a choice, isn’t it?

What set off this rant, today, was finding a dental mouthguard that someone had dropped in the road, that someone in a car had subsequently run over and cracked. Mouthguards cost hundreds of dollars, and this one was trashed, because someone in a car was careless. And on a bike, it was easy to see, easy to stop, and easy to pick up. So I did.

Using the Little Snitch firewall, a program called “ksfetch” wakes up every hour or so, asking for permission to connect to the world.
I check to see that it is Google software update related, decide that is okay, and give it eternal permission.
A little while later, even though it has eternal permission, I am bothered again. And again, and again, and again, and again, and again.
WTF?

What’s happening is that the Google Software updater (“Keystone”, apparently) frequently writes out a new version of ksfetch, and because it is a new application, firewalls like Little Snitch decide that it has not been approved for access. Why this fails security ergonomics is that it is very annoying, and it trains people into the bad habit of automatically approving access by anything named “ksfetch”; if I were writing a virus, I’d be sure to call it “ksfetch”.

You can see people attempting to figure this out on a Google product forum here. There’s one reply from someone who might be with Google, but they’re clearly not getting it.

The specific problems with these handlebars are:

1. For riding in traffic, they are too wide.
2. They provide only one hand position; notice all the aftermarket nonsense to help add positions?
3. That one position that they provide is pessimal, especially if you are older, especially if you have had problems with your wrists (e.g., carpal tunnel) in the past.
4. They don’t work well with baskets.
5. When you go to replace them, either because your hands hurt or are going numb, or because you want to use a basket, you’ll discover that the one-piece brake+shifter lumps do not play well with the new handlebars, and you’ll need to replace that, too.
6. Even if you don’t replace them, that one-piece brake+shifter lump will go bad; the shifter on one side or the other will start to not reach all the gears. The guys at my local bike shop said: “spray it with lots of WD-40 and work it back and forth, and it might get better, otherwise, there’s no point trying to fix it”.

Some positive advice: for retrofitting a mountain bike for civilized use, I recommend replacing the bars with Velo-Orange Left-bank or Porteur bars (22.2mm lever diameter), an appropriate shifter (Falcon thumb-shift is cost-effective, though not indexed; SRAM twist 7, Shimano 7, or Shimano 6), and Tektro brake levers. There are 8-speed options at Amazon. The Velo-Orange cork blend grips are comfortable, durable, cheap, and black (which goes with everything and does not show dirt). To install them, be sure that there is room on the bar to push them all the way on, get their insides wet, and push them on quickly. If they fit loose, a little bit of tape on the bar that runs the length of the grip area and curves around into the end will help (if it doesn’t curl around the end into the inside, it can get pulled loose and bunch up as the grip slides on). Spurcycle grip rings, when available, are another nice choice (I bought some on Kickstarter, and they work quite nicely, especially when trapped at both ends by a lever and end-cap).

• The command line tools for XCode were installed on the old system, but not the new.
• Java was installed/enabled on the old system, but not the new.

This was a surprising pair of omissions, because (on the other hand) all my MacPorts stuff woke up happy, including the auto-started apache daemon for the Trac server I run on my laptop.

Whoops, one more glitch — it did not automatically transfer over my iTunes authorizations, or ask me if I would like that to happen. And for some reason, the store is not answering the request to authorize the new computer. DRM, I hate it. This is why I don’t buy DRM’d music anymore — not sure if iTunes store is or isn’t nowadays, because when I switched to eMusic, it was, and Apple hasn’t fixed the problem yet for the music I bought from them so long ago. (Dear RIAA: I curse you guys everytime this happens. Way to screw over your paying customers; the pirates deliver a superior product.)

Happiest surprise: realizing that with spaces and swipes (no idea how long these have been supported, but only with Lion did I start to pay attention), I could run my “Complete” New Yorker in its own screen-hogging “space”, and just swipe back and forth to it at my convenience. Next thing to try is to see if this same trick works for screen-hogging games like Civ 5; I fear it will not.

Sounds like a safe approach to managing the economy, doesn’t it?

That’s Herbert Hoover, in 1932.

This article recounts the issue of deciding whether to get (expensive) rabies shots after a bat got into a house, and quotes a nurse as claiming that the risk of a rabies exposure in that situation was one in 400 million.

This reply asserts that this is an example of how risk intolerance raises medical costs, and also makes that claim that the drive to the hospital for the shots was riskier than the bat exposure.

It would be a gosh-darn shame if two articles took a bogus statistic for granted to make conclusions (really, to support pre-existing opinions) about our health care system and medical costs, wouldn’t it? If only we had a network of computers and data banks where we could look these things up and check them.So: “From 1990 through 2000, bat RABV variants have emerged as the predominant cause of human rabies in the United States. In the past 11 years, total human rabies deaths have averaged 2.9/year, and 24 (75%) of 32 deaths were due to bat RABV variants.”

And: “Only 2 (8%) of the 24 patients with human rabies caused by bat RABV variants had a definitive history of a bat bite. Nine patients (38%) had a history of direct physical contact with bats, 5 (21%) had a history of a bat inside the living area, and 8 (33%) had no history of proximity to bats (4).”

The one in 400 million figure is completely nuts. For the entire population, every year about 2 people contract rabies (somehow) from a bat. Not “are exposed to rabies”, but actually proceed to the disease and die. In a population of 300 million, that means the risk of death (not exposure) from bat-borne rabies is 1 in 150 million. But wait, there’s more! Most people do not have bats inside their homes. The question here is not “what’s the chance the I’ll die from a rabies-infected bat?”, but “what’s the chance that having a bat in my house exposes me to rabies (that will kill me if I am not vaccinated)?” The population is much smaller, and the event (exposure, not death) is much larger. But what are the ratios? There may be some animal control departments that collect this data, but I couldn’t find them. If we assume 1 home in a hundred, per year, then the population is 100 times smaller, and the risk 100 times larger. The ratio of exposures to deaths is also unclear; if it’s 10-to-1, then the risk is also 10 times larger.

But, aha, there is some data from which we can estimate. “Between 20,000 and 40,000 people in the U.S. receive the rabies vaccine each year, usually after being bitten by an animal” and “Bat bites, which typically occur when a person finds a bat in his home and tries to shoo it out, are responsible for 80% of cases in which the vaccine is given”. If we call it bat-in-home 30,000 vaccinations per year, then one person in 1 in 10,000 receives the rabies vaccine each year because of a bat in their home. Another way of gauging the risk is to consider how many people had a bat in their house, but did not receive the vaccine. For that population, exposure=death, and we know that at least between .4 (history of bat in house, 21% of 2) person per year is exposed. If 1% of the people who report having a bat in their home proceed to being vaccinated, then we know that (1) 1% of the homes in the US have a bat in the living area each year, and know it, and (2) the unvaccinated shared-home-with-bat population of 3,000,000 (100 times 30,000) had .4 exposure (death) per year, or a risk of 1 in 7.5 million. If, on the other hand, 10% of the people who report a bat in their home receive the vaccine, then the risk is 1 in 750,000, and only 1 home in 1000 has a (known) bat in its living area.

Problem #1. Won’t talk to my work calendar any more. Was talking to my work calendar, which flunked the upgrade, and somehow scragged the subscription some way that required me to resubscribe in BusyCal (which now works properly).

Problem #2. After making me hate it because of problem #1, it fucking keeps fucking waking up. I’m going to compress the damn thing so it can’t run, maybe that will fix it. Can’t find the “stop annoying me with your fucking waking up” option. I tried changing the calendar update interval to “Manual”, that didn’t do it, either.

I tried to compress it, then delete the original, and it told me I couldn’t, because iCal is Special.

So I opened a terminal window, and “sudo chmod 000 /Applications/iCal.app”.

That did it. No more waking up and annoying me just because I entered an event in the calendar progam that doesn’t suck.

The *first recipe* is just a particular set of choices from the cookbook recipe, doubled.
The [second recipe] is heat-reduced, because just before the party I realized that some people in the crowd would prefer less heat, guessed at some changes, and they tasted okay. There are only three ingredient differences between the two; the choices are indicated both with color and decorations. This is the *spicy choice*, this is the [cool choice]. The main rule is to cut out the hot chili peppers, and substitute paprika (less hot) for ancho powder (somewhat hot). The result is a LOT of paprika in the cool recipe (about 3/4 of a cup).

If you can’t find the powdered spices (ancho and chipotle chili, in particular), try Penzeys, either mail order or in Arlington Heights on Mass. Ave.

One thing to note is that this recipe is aimed at producing soft beans; this means that adding the tomatos and salt should be delayed as long as possible to ensure that the beans are soft (acid slows softening). Fresh beans are better; a bag that has been sitting on a shelf at home for who-knows-how-long is not a good bet. I bought mine from the bulk container at Whole Foods; I imagine La Chapincita in Waltham is a good choice.
I tried a pinch of baking soda and that seemed to help (a pinch here is perhaps 1/16 teaspoon, added to 2 pounds of beans) but I read that this can destroy vitamins (thiamine, in particular). There’s additional discussion here: apparently there is a tradeoff between preserving vitamins and making minerals and proteins accessible, and who knows what effect hours of boiling has.

See also:
Effect of Different Soaking Solutions on Nutritive Utilization of Minerals (Calcium, Phosphorus, and Magnesium) from Cooked Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Growing Rats
Most of the other relevant documents were behind paywalls.

Utensils:
  6+ quart pot
  small skillet
  4 quart skillet/pan/pot
  mortar, spice mill, or chopping coffee grinder
  (you can clean a coffee grinder somewhat
  grinding dry oatmeal)
  cup-sized containers for staging spices
  one larger heat-tolerant container for spices
  a heat-tolerant silicone spatula is helpful

2 pounds black beans
   Soak overnight.
   Drain, rinse, refill an inch above beans.

2 bay leaves
MAYBE a pinch of baking soda
   Add to beans (bury leaves in beans)
   Boil beans at low-medium.
   Barely boiling is fine, you don't want them to stick.
   They can cook for a while;
   too little is worse than too much.

9 Tablespoons cumin seeds
9 Tablespoons dried oregano leaves
*9 Tablespoons* [13 Tablespoons] paprika
*1 teaspoon* [NO CAYENNE] cayenne powder
   Heat a skillet over medium heat;
   Add the cumin seeds, heat and stir till they begin to color;
   Add the oregano, stir/shake so they don't scorch;
   When the fragrance is robust,
   add paprika and cayenne, remove pan from heat, stir,
   pour out of pan into cool bowl.

8 cloves garlic, crushed/chopped
1 teaspoon salt
*5 Tablespoons* [1 Tablespoon] ancho chili powder
  Grind cumin/oregano/paprika spice mixture above
  (in a mortar, which is tedious, or using a coffee grinder)
  Combine garlic/salt/ancho with spice mixture, set aside.

6 Tablespoons olive oil
6 medium onions diced into 1/4" squares
  Heat oil in a LARGE skillet, saute onions over medium till
  they soften.  Stir intermittently.  This takes a while.
  (You might start this before crushing the garlic etc.)
  When the onions soften, add all the combined seasonings
  above, and cook for five minutes.

2 28oz cans crushed or diced tomatoes
*2 teaspoons* [1/2 teaspoon or less] chipotle chili powder
  Add to onions and spices in large skillet,
  cook at low-medium for 30 minutes.

  Add tomato/onion/spice mixture to beans.
  Add water if beans are not covered.
  Cook for at least an hour; three is fine.
  Be sure heat is low enough that beans do not
  stick and burn; intermittent stirring that
  scrapes the bottom of the pot can help.

Goes well with sour cream, chopped cilantro, cheese.
Sour cream and cheese are helpful for knocking
back the heat if that is a problem.

Next, try putting the hood up on your car, parked on a busy street (Massachusetts Avenue, Arlington, in particular). Stand next to the car facing traffic with some jumper cables in your hand, out where drivers can see them, almost as if you needed a jump to start your car. Dozens of cars will drive by and many minutes will elapse before anyone will stop to help (at least, that was my experience today).

Draw your own conclusions.

I’ve long been interested in LED lighting, and have installed some myself in places where it was a clear win (underneath cabinets and on bicycles). I’ve been wary of “LED light bulbs” for some time, because to be fair, diplomatic, and objective, up till now, most of them have been overpriced crap. But last weekend or so, I was at the Home Despot, saw some LED light bulbs, read the labels, decided that it was worth my while to try one of them. I got a 14 watt bulb claiming to be the equivalent of a 75W bulb, installed it, and so far, so good — it’s bright, good color temperature, and instant-on, as expected. Lifetime is TBD; claims to have a 5 year warranty (but did I save the receipt? Whoops, need to remember to do that when I buy more), also claims to have a 25000 hour life, which is reasonable for LEDs. Also claims to be dimmable, but the reviews consistently say “no, not really, not like you’d expect”.

So, if I view this bulb as an investment, what is the rate of return? Let’s benchmark it against an incandescent bulb, since that is what the Post did. I initially decided to assume that I was saving 60 watts per bulb (15 instead of 75), running it 6 hours a day, and paying $.12/kwh for electricity (actually, I pay $.15, I just checked last month’s bill). Electricity savings come to about $1.30 per month.

Assume, also, that an incandescent bulb costs a dollar, and has a lifetime of 1500, so include the cost of the bulb in each month’s savings. At 6 hours per day, the bulb savings are 12 cents per month. Total savings are $1.42/month.

Assume the bulb will last 10 years (21600 hours at 6/day). I paid $30 for the bulb, plus sales tax, rounded up, is $32.

So, supposing I made an investment of $32, and it paid me back $1.42 per month for 120 months, at which point, no more payments, just as if I were loaning money to someone else for an itty-bitty mortgage. Spreadsheets have a “RATE” function that will determine the interest rate given a present value, future value, payment amount, and number of payments; in this case, -32, 0, 1.42, and 120. And out pops 4.4 percent. Not very exciting, though it helps that it is free of taxes, since it is money saved, not money earned. And if you only ran a bulb 3 hours a day, and only saved 45 watts, and only paid $.10 per killowatt hour, only 1.2%. That’s not much of an investment, is it?

But those interest rates are PER MONTH, not per year. So really, 1.2% — that’s 14.4% return, per year, tax free. If you return to the original assumptions, the $32 investment in an LED light bulb pays out at 52.8% per year.

What’s the risk in this investment? I see three possible risks that could cause it to fail to pay out.

First, you can only save money that you have; if you go bankrupt, then it’s not interesting that you aren’t paying money to the electric company, because you’re already not paying money to the electric company. However, all investments are vulnerable to bankruptcy risk.

Second, electricity in the next few years could become incredibly cheap (pigs could fly, too).

Third, the bulb could fail. Obviously, it pays to save your receipt; that gives you insurance of some sort for up to 5 years. If the bulb fails in five years instead of lasting ten, then the payout is not as impressive. If electricity is too cheap, or if you don’t run the bulb enough hours per day, it won’t pay out (3 hours per day, $.10/kwh, 45 watt savings, 5 years, will not pay off). But, if a bulb is on even 4 hours a day at $.10/kWH, the interest rate is 7.4%, or 3 hours at $.12/kWH, is 5%. Where I live with $.15/kWH electricity, 3 hours a day, 45 watts less, failing at 5 years, pays off at 14.8%. At 6 hours a day, 45.8%. I really like the idea of an investment that pays me 14.8% annual interest, tax-free, when it “fails”.

Did you notice that the Washington Post thought it was more important to tell you about the terrible government-subsidized light bulbs, when they could have been giving you this useful information instead? Says something about their priorities, doesn’t it? Hard to believe that anyone would think time spent reading that would be well-spent.