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The last time I did this, I had figures through 2011.
Now I have 2012, 2014 and 2105 (2013 seems to be missing).
Now in a Google spreadsheet, so you can look at the numbers directly and poke at the links if you want to see where the numbers came from.

In words — since 2009, each gallon of gasoline or diesel is taxed between 40 and 50 cents too low even if the only purpose of that tax is to pay for road construction and maintenance. Any other taxes (carbon, pollution, noise, congestion, health care) would be on top of that. This also does not include the maintenance or construction that we ought to be doing; this is just what is spent.

Totaled over all the fuel sold, each year since 2009 the annual shortfall totals somewhere between 75 and 100 billion dollars.

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This is a (very) rare work-related entry. I mostly work on the compiler for a programming language named “Go”, and one of the problems we face is if and how we should add “generics” to a future version of Go. I can’t possibly summarize easily for a non-technical reader, but the TLDR version is (1) lots of other languages have generics (2) we’re pretty sure they’re useful (3) but they come with associated costs and complexity and we’re not sure they’re worth it. Also, “generics” is not just a single thing, there’s several semantic variants and several ways to implement them (for example, erased versus dictionary-passing versus template-stamping). So our team is collecting example stories of how Go generics would be useful in various situations — the jargon term for this is “use case”. Here’s mine:

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Right Hook Videos

August 5, 2017

I was trying to explain to someone on Facebook that right hooks are a problem, and a problem caused by drivers, not by people riding bicycles. No dice, cyclists are jerks for yelling at drivers when this happens, and jerks for putting their license plates on the internet, thus spake the driver. But it was a lot of work to collect these videos (seriously Youtube, can I have a “search my videos” option?) so here they are:

https://vimeo.com/111294266

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ndvz4ZJRoek

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNbvCgEBrLo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnHfXaYcQ08

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZII3ImASVQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ2pe3_KClU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA3EQ4Q6avs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C6jFk3uVm8

https://vimeo.com/111805880

I’ll just put these articles out here.
Note that we count overdose deaths per 100,000, Europe counts them per million.
Our best state in 2015, Nebraska, had 69 overdose deaths per million, or back of the pack for Europe. Portugal, with decriminalized drugs, had 3 per million.
Here’s the European stats referenced in that article.

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Twitter algorithms

July 2, 2017

These are my rules for making Twitter more useful.

My goal, on Twitter, is a combination of finding fun and interesting stuff and to expose myself to (certain) other points of view. At work we have training on bias, unconscious and otherwise, and on techniques for reducing it and countering it. One of the instructors mentioned that you can’t just wish unconscious bias away; apparently repeated exposure to normalizing examples is required, but it takes time (this is yet another disturbing/annoying way that our brains resemble neural nets for machine learning; in this light, unconscious bias is just the result of a lifelong biased training set.)

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It’s a little depressing to look at how many hard it is to get all the different factions of the Democratic Party excited about helping each other. I wonder a bit if this is a case of scarcity pushing people towards fighting over scraps, and I wonder how much this is a case of Russians/Republicans using the internet to sow left-wing dissent.

At minimum, people ought to accept that each others’ problems are worthy. Is there really any question that blacks get a raw deal in this country? Or that people who are openly gay or trans are discriminated against? Or that women don’t get promotions and pay commensurate with their skills, productivity, etc? Or that unions are necessary in order to give workers an equal footing in negotiations over pay, hours, benefits, and worker safety? Or that many forms of pollution lead to statistically early death? Lack of an adequate social safety net is clearly a problem, and clearly one that can be solved, because countries that are less wealthy do a better job than we do — notably, they deliver life expectancy and lower infant mortality for less money per capita. They can afford it, so can we. Climate change? It’s happening. Slowly, but steadily, and it’s going to continue for decades-to-centuries after we finally decide to take it seriously; the only question is how fast it’s changing when enough of us finally get alarmed enough to really act. Education? College is stupidly, fantastically expensive, and to the extent this is Baumol’s Cost Disease, we should just subsidize it (other poorer countries manage to do this) and to the extent that it isn’t we should drive prices down by properly supporting public universities. Etc. These are all problems, and the Republican Party is on the wrong side of all of these issues. We shouldn’t pick just one, we should not be put off because we think labor is important but we’re a little nervous about the gays, or focus only on racism to the exclusion of college costs — there’s nothing wrong with wanting it all, we can have it all, and all of us deserve to have these problems addressed. There’s no mutual incompatibility between any of these issues.

And be a little more skeptical, say, when someone on Fox News tries to tell you that anyone who’s LGBTQ is a threat to the women and children. We’ve done plenty to make life unpleasant for people who aren’t “normal”; if someone’s out of the closet and you notice them, they must feel very strongly about it to put up with the social crap, and must have been truly miserable in the closet. This has nothing to do with your children, and everything with them wanting to live happier lives. Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to con you into being mean to other people for no reason at all; ignore them, they’re evil.

Or, similarly, that someone might trot out some bogus statistics to try to make white people nervous about “black crime”. Some of these stats are flat lies, in other cases the data has been tortured into confessing things that aren’t true. In practice, most people are non-violent, most people are law-abiding (well, except for traffic laws, which everyone breaks very often, and traffic violence is actually a big deal). Don’t take the bait, anyone trying to convince you that blacks are a Big Crime Risk is just plain evil, ignore them, change the channel, turn off the radio. They’re trying to turn you into a racist and create dissent on the left.

There are bullshit artists trying to sow doubt about health care, too. One dishonest clown keeps trying to claim that Medicaid is worse than no health care at all, because people on Medicaid (as a population) are sicker than people who aren’t, never mind that if you’re poor and sick you’re much more motivated to sign up for Medicaid than if you’re merely poor, in which case that might seem like more of a hassle than it’s worth. This is what passes for serious statistical analysis on the right; these guys are sad, lying clowns, don’t let their obvious bullshit make you doubt the worth of providing health care.

And so on. There’s probably better examples but I’m a cis het white guy 1%er descended (father’s side) from a family with strong ties to Dartmouth, clearly I’m a traitor to my gender, race, ancestors, etc, it’s a wonder I get any of this right. The main theme is to not let one left-wing cause be split from another, and anytime you catch someone trying to do that, think about why. I honestly wonder how many of the alleged “hard-core Bernie-bros” that get noticed on the internet now are actually left wing or even American; disinformation is a real thing, and sowing dissent is a standard tactic. I supported Bernie, I sent him money, I like (or liked) his politics. But when he didn’t win the nomination, we’re done, support the nominee, got to stay focused on outcomes. I have several friends who did the same. Ask yourself *why* someone on the left would now be interested in prolonging the primary contest after we lost the general election. It makes no sense; the Republicans are uniformly terrible for everything Bernie Sanders has supported over the years, the Democrats are uniformly better, and we tried plenty hard in the primaries and Bernie didn’t make the cut. If we don’t unite, all of us, we lose ground.

Reading List

June 2, 2017

Normal Accidents, Charles Perrow
How complex systems go wrong, or not.

Influence, Robert Cialdini
How we get conned / how to con.

The Control of Nature, John McPhee
Hubris wins, but it’s close.

Waves and Beaches, Willard Bascom
For mitigation of hubris, and there’s interesting mathematics happening right in front of us at the beach.

Bicycling Science, David Gordon Wilson
More than you’d ever want to know about the most efficient means of human travel.

Roxana’s Children, Bonfield and Morrison
“Because they’re always writing about the men”, and reverse nepotism. Roxana’s my great-great-great-grandmother, married twice, raised nine of her own kids and two stepkids, all lived long enough to marry. (Morrison is my great-aunt).

To Say Nothing of the Dog, Connie Willis
Because I keep re-reading it and enjoying it. Time travel with bits of Christie, Sayers, and Wodehouse.

The March North, A Succession of Bad Days, Safely You Deliver, Graydon Saunders
Because I keep re-reading and enjoying them. A friend of mine doesn’t like them, maybe you won’t either, but I did. Emerging interesting theme: “we’re changing, so what do we want to change into?”

Yesteryear I Lived in Paradise, Myrtle Scharrer Betz
Florida before air conditioning and the crowds it has now. I grew up sometimes messing around in boats on St. Joseph’s Sound behind Caladesi Island, where she grew up.

Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things, Braungart and McDonough
Read it once at the recommendation of my uncle, it made a real impression on me, and got me permanently thinking about the asymptote, after we’ve sucked up all the cheap-and-easy resources.

The Winner-Take-All Society, Luxury Fever, Robert Frank
Introduces you to tournament economies and relative-status utility functions (deriving satisfaction from your status relative to others screws up the mathematics of market economics; free markets can easily yield suboptimal results under those conditions).

There’s probably other books that I’ve forgotten, and at least one that hasn’t been written, about how flaky and weird our mental engines are, and why we shouldn’t just be content with how we’ve made ourselves, and how we could be better people (not smarter people, not longer-living people, but more considerate, less biased, more careful).